Signal Market — Decision Intelligence

What is Signal Market?

Signal Market is a decision intelligence platform. We aggregate, analyze, and surface the highest-quality technology trend signals from 8+ sources so humans and AI agents can act on what is actually happening, not what sounds plausible.

Individual Investors

Track AI ecosystem shifts before they hit mainstream
Confidence-scored signals, not hype
Daily brief at 09:00 GMT+8

AI Teams & Researchers

Monitor code, models, papers across 8+ sources
Cross-validation reveals genuine momentum
API v2 for agent integration

AI Agents (MCP-compatible)

Structured WorldState v2 schema
Typed fields, explicit nulls, confidence intervals
Machine-native intelligence layer

Analysts & Strategy

Policy layer (L4) for regulatory intelligence
Professional judgment layer (L5) from top analysts
Earnings intelligence (L5b) for market signals
1

Pipeline aggregates 230+ signals daily

Continuous ingestion from 8+ layers: HackerNews, Reuters, Polymarket, macro finance, policy sources, professional analysts, and earnings calls.

~75 from L0 HackerNews ~4 from L1 Reuters/TechCrunch ~15 from L3 Polymarket ~8 from L3b Macro ~43 from L4 Policy ~75 from L5 Professional ~12 from L5b Earnings
2

Engine merges, scores, and ranks by urgency + confidence + stage

Signals are deduplicated by topic, cross-validated across layers, and assigned confidence scores (0-1) and lifecycle stages (emerging → forming → accelerating → fading).

3

Action layer generates decision questions and next best actions

Each signal includes: primary cause, urgency level, decision window, accelerants, inhibitors, and causal chain — transforming intelligence into executable decisions.

Total: ~230 raw signals per run, merged into 17 topic clusters

L0 HackerNews — Developer Community ~75 signals/run
HackerNews Show HN
HackerNews Ask HN
HackerNews Front Page
L1 Reuters / TechCrunch / BBC — News Media ~4 signals/run
Reuters Technology
TechCrunch AI
BBC Technology
L3 Polymarket — Prediction Markets ~15 signals/run
Polymarket AI/tech markets
Polymarket tech adoption
L3b Yahoo Finance / CNBC / MarketWatch — Macro ~8 signals/run
Yahoo Finance AI
CNBC Technology
MarketWatch Tech
L4 The Hill / CNBC / Axios — Policy Layer ~43 signals/run
The Hill Tech Policy
CNBC Policy
Axios Tech Policy
L5 SemiAnalysis / Stratechery / MIT TR / Greylock / YC / TechCrunch Venture ~75 signals/run
SemiAnalysis
Stratechery
MIT Technology Review
Greylock Ventures
YC Blog
TechCrunch Venture
L5b Yahoo Finance — Earnings Intelligence ~12 signals/run
Microsoft (MSFT)
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Alphabet (GOOG)
Meta (META)
Amazon (AMZN)
Apple (AAPL)
Tesla (TSLA)
TSMC (TSM)
AMD
Intel (INTC)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Salesforce (CRM)
01

Curation is a dead end

Every newsletter, aggregator, and media outlet tries to solve intelligence with editorial judgment. The problem: at the speed AI is moving, editorial can't keep up. By the time a writer curates, the pattern has already formed. We use computation, not judgment.

02

Single sources lie. Patterns don't.

One arXiv paper is noise. One GitHub repo is a hobby project. One news article is PR. When arXiv, GitHub trending, HuggingFace downloads, and financial news all point to the same topic — that's a signal. Cross-source validation is the core of our confidence model.

03

Intelligence must be machine-native

The next generation of decision-making happens inside AI agents, not inside browser tabs. We build the intelligence layer to be consumed by both humans and machines — with typed schemas, explicit confidence intervals, and structured null fields that document what's next, not what's missing.

04

Honesty is a feature

We tell you when a signal is single-source. We tell you when confidence is low. Our API returns explicit null fields with documentation — not fake completeness. You can trust the scores because we show you how they're built.

1

Ingest from source universe

Continuous ingestion from monitored sources across AI research, code activity, model releases, and financial intelligence.

arXiv cs.AI/LG/CL GitHub trending HuggingFace Alpha Vantage arXiv RSS
2

Extract candidate signals

Topic extraction, entity recognition, and initial scoring. Each candidate enters a candidate pool with weak signal status until evidence accumulates.

3

Cross-source validation

Signals are matched across sources. When independent streams confirm the same topic, confidence rises. Multi-source confirmation is flagged explicitly.

4

Lifecycle state assignment

Each signal moves through a lifecycle: weak → emerging → forming → accelerating → peak → fading. Stage transitions are computed, not editorial.

5

Signal graph construction

Signals are placed in a relationship graph. Topics that co-appear in sources, share evidence, or belong to the same domain form graph edges. Hub topics and cluster formations are computed from graph topology.

6

Intelligence delivery

Structured JSON API for human developers and AI agents. Daily brief for human subscribers. WorldStateObject v2 schema for agent-native consumption.

What we're not

A news aggregator
A paper summary service
A GitHub trending mirror
A market data dashboard
An editorial newsletter
A social media tracker

What we are

A signal intelligence layer
A cross-source validation engine
A lifecycle state machine
A graph relationship mapper
A confidence scoring system
An agent-native world-state API
Tier 0 AI Research & Code ● LIVE
arXiv cs.AI trust 0.90
arXiv cs.LG trust 0.90
arXiv cs.CL trust 0.90
GitHub Trending trust 0.82
HuggingFace Models trust 0.80
HackerNews trust 0.75 · dev community
npm registry trust 0.80 · ecosystem adoption
PyPI trust 0.80 · ecosystem adoption
Tier 1 Financial & Market Intelligence ◑ PARTIAL
Alpha Vantage news trust 0.72
ProductHunt trust 0.68 · product launch signal
CryptoPanic trust 0.65 · high FUD/FOMO risk
FRED macro trust 0.90 · needs API key
SEC filings
Earnings calendar
Tier 1 Crypto & On-chain ◑ PARTIAL
CryptoPanic news
Exchange announcements
On-chain anomaly detection
Protocol events
Tier 2 Prediction Markets & Global Events ○ PLANNED
Prediction market probabilities
Policy event signals
Macro risk indicators
Futures positioning

We build for the next 10 years of decision-making, not the last 10. The future of intelligence consumption is not a human reading a dashboard — it's an AI agent querying a structured world-state API, cross-referencing it with market data, and making investment or product decisions in milliseconds.

Signal Market is built machine-first. Every field in our API is typed. Every null has a documented reason. Every confidence score has a derivation. If your agent can't use our API reliably, we've failed.

For humans, we build for focus. The rarest resource in the AI era is not access to information — it's signal-to-noise ratio. We give you the 8 things that matter today, not 800.

Live

Signal Intelligence Feed

Cross-validated signals from arXiv, GitHub, HuggingFace, Alpha Vantage. Confidence scoring, lifecycle state, evidence chain.

Live

Signal Graph

Topic relationship graph — co-occurrence edges, cluster detection, hub signal identification. D3 force simulation.

Live

Daily Intelligence Brief

Compiled daily brief from all signal sections. Machine-readable API + human-readable web.

Live

WorldState v2 API

Agent-native intelligence schema. Event classification, related domain mapping, causal phase, structured null fields.

Live

Causal Explanation Engine (P0-B)

8/8 signals have domain_knowledge causal models. Primary cause, mechanism, accelerants, inhibitors, 4-step causal chain, urgency + decision window. /api/v2/causal/:id

Soon

Propagation Layer (P1)

How signals travel between domains. Actor mapping, cross-domain ripple detection.

Planned

Scenario Injection Engine (P2)

What-if simulation. Feed a scenario and see how the signal graph would shift.

Planned

Agent Training Ground (P3)

Structured environment for agents to reason over historical signal data. Ground truth evaluation.

The intelligence layer for what's next

Start with the free tier. Upgrade when Signal Market becomes load-bearing.